Baylor (@1.004) vs Rice (@21.0)

Our Prediction:

Baylor will win

Baylor – Rice Match Prediction | 21-09-2019 19:00

This is where Seth Russell and the passing game go off and start looking like the Baylor offense is supposed to. This will be the opposite of that. You know that horrible effort by Baylor to start the SMU game with no pop and no touchdowns? Rice wont have any answers to keep up the pace there arent any playmakers to rely on.

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Rice vs. Baylor - 9/21/19 College Football Pick, Odds, and Prediction

But does Rice do anything right? Is anything working so far to provide any semblance of hope? Not really, but the linebackers are making plenty of tackles and need to somehow keep the Baylor ground game from going off. There might be plenty of young players in key spots, but the linebackers mainly Emmanuel Ellerbee and Alex Lyons have been around and know what theyre doing.

For passing yards allowed per game, the Owls are currently ranked 7th in Conference USA. This year, they have allowed a total of 603 rushing yards and 5.1 rushing touchdowns. The Owls are allowing 34.3 points per game ranking them 11th in Conference USA and 109th in the country. They are conceding 234.3 passing yards per game. In terms of points given up, they have given up 103 total points. Rice needs to do more to make teams respect their running game by averaging 111.7 yards on the ground per game, putting them 109th in college football. Their passing defense is one of the mediocre groups in college football. When talking about rushing yards, they are giving up 201 yards per game which puts them at 115th in Division 1 and 11th in C-USA. The Owls average 276.7 yards per contest overall ranking them 125th in the nation and 14th in Conference USA. As a team, they have a total of 335 rushing yards through 3 contests, so they'll need to look to improve on these numbers if they want to compete with the better teams in the nation. The Owls come into this game with a record of 0-3.

They will then go on to face UTSA and Rice after that. On the other hand, there are a number of reasons to believe they could get over 6.5 wins this year. Austin, which shouldnt be a difficult game for them. Secondly, they are starting off next years season with a match up against Stephen F. First of all, they already did it last year. Interestingly enough, these three non-conference match ups accounted for only a 7-28 record last year, so this alone should probably put them right at three wins right here.

Fearless Predictions

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But the bigger problem has been a secondary thats seen two very different passing games, getting ripped up by the Hilltopper air show in Week One, and allowing Army to complete 4-of-6 throws to keep things moving last week. The Owls have been awful so far, doing next to nothing offensively in ugly blowout losses to Western Kentucky and Army to kick off the season.

The key thing here is that oddsmakers have no choice but to inflate this line. You have to think they set this line to where they feel the Owls can cover. Note that Baylor has been a poor play in Friday games, going just 1-4 ATS in their last 5. The betting public wants nothing to do with Rice after how bad they looked in their first two games.

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What other factors could cause the Bears to go under 6.5 wins this year? This is due in part to their precarious 7-6 record last year, but also because they had such a tremendous jump in just Rhules second year. Well, a couple of things, including the fact they have a difficult conference schedule, hosting some of the best teams in the Big 12 in Oklahoma, Iowa State, Texas and West Virginia. They also could face difficulty with playing TCU in November. The plus money is on the Baylor Bears notching less than 6.5 wins this year. Yes, they had the jump, but they could easily have a bit of a setback as well.

The Rice Owls will be out to pull off the home upset and bank their first win of the season after dropping to 0-3 with a 48-13 loss to Texas in their last outing. As a team, Rice is averaging 276.7 yards of total offense and 13.7 points per game this season. Austin Trammell leads Rices receiving corps with 16 catches for 204 yards while Brad Rozner is the Owls 2nd 100-yard receiver with 150 receiving yards this season. Defensively, Blaze Alldredge leads Rice with 21 tackles, including 13 solo tackles while Treshawn Chamberlain is right behind with 20 tackles and Anthony Ekpe and Antonio Montero each have 19 tackles. Tom Stewart has thrown for 364 yards and 3 touchdowns on 58.5% passing while Aston Walter has logged a team-high 170 rushing yards and Nahshon Ellerbe has 106 rushing yards this season.

What makes this even more special is that its a weekday night game on ESPN. This is Rices Super Bowl this season. One they could have trouble getting up for on short rest with their conference opener on deck next week. Its also going to be hard for them to give the Owls a ton of respect given last years lopsided win. As for Baylor, its just another game on the schedule.


Rice is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall while the over is 18-7-2 in their last 27 non-conference games. Baylor is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Baylor is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games while the over is 23-8 in their last 31 non-conference games.